Cabinet At "Civil War" While Opposition to Euro Hits A High

The cabinet continues to squabble over who runs euro policy-making, even though a General Election is expected next year. Prime Minister Tony Blair insists that he will decide when the time is right for holding a referendum. Most political commentators argue that the crisis is not about the Government's enthusiasm for the euro. To many it seems like Mr. Blair's Cabinet colleagues are shuffling for influence over the decision. Writing in today's Guardian - 26th June - Peter Preston argues that the disagreement over policy would normally lead to a cabinet reshuffle.

Mr. Preston believes that such a move by Tony Blair would prove "too hot to handle." The PM would have to sack any number of his front bench, including "five tests" Chancellor Gordon Brown. This could, he suggests, be too risky for Tony Blair. Mr. Preston forecasts a number of scenarios. Either one of them could be contentious, and at a time when Tony Blair wants to present a united policy-front. Mr. Preston even predicts that there won't be a referendum until 2003. The reality of this prediction, he said, will depend on next year's election results. To proceed with confidence the Government would need to maintain its large majority at Westminster.

In summary a reshuffle before the election could spark a war out of a mere disagreement over the euro. Essentially, he believes that the argument is over who's in charge of the policy. Gordon Brown is described as the "great unshiftable." Mr. Preston adds: "The tests, as we know, are really political, not economic. A chancellor Cook or chancellor Byers would surely interpret them differently." Mr. Preston argues that it will therefore be difficult to judge when the time is right to join the single currency.

The latest Mori poll, for the News of the World, showed 72% against the euro is bound to complicate matters for the Government. Opposition has increased by 12% to the possibility of Britain's euro membership, whereas support for the single currency has waned to just 20%.

Tony Blair, inspite of cabinet turmoil, remains more popular than his Tory counterpart, William Hague. Otherwise the Conservatives have crept up in the polls as a party. The poll also showed that 78% of the 1,000 people questioned believed, contrary to Blair's insistence that the Government is united, that the Cabinet is actually split over the issue.

Ironically it's the Daily Telegraph that gets most of the flack when the euro's supporters moan about the opinion polls. Yet Eurosceptics often see the BBC as their own pariah. Even Chris Patten, the former Conservative Party chairman and last governor of Hong Kong, held the Daily Telegraph in venomous regard. He accused the Tories of being "sub-contracted" to the newspaper's editor. "I'm not sure that's a way for a great political party to behave," he insisted.

The pro-euro lobby has had a rough ride with the press. Even though New Labour courted Rupert Murdoch, the Sun has often been an irritation. The Sun once referred to Oskar Lafontaine, the former German finance minister, as the "most dangerous man in Europe" before the launch of the euro last year. Perhaps to Blair's annoyance, two weeks after the cabinet split emerged, cabinet divisions are high on the media's editorial list.

Mr. Patten believes that the Cabinet are split more over tactics than strategy. Mr. Patten commented on the Cabinet feud on LWT's The Jonathan Dimbleby Programme on Sunday 25th June. Overall he agreed with the Government's strategy of delaying a referendum until after the next election. "They are split about whether or not it's possible to close down the debate on the euro until after the election," he said.

Mr. Patten, now the EU's commissioner for foreign and external affairs, owes his job to Tony Blair. After last year's debacle in the European Commission, where the entire Commission was forced to resign over corruption and nepotism charges, the Prime Minister nominated Mr. Patten. William Hague backed, but failed to establish a less pro-euro Conservative nominee. Even though Tony Blair succeeded in getting Mr. Patten into his "big tent", Chris Patten hasn't failed to criticise the Prime Minister. Mr. Patten believes that "Britain would be poorer" outside of the euro.

Mr. Patten asserted that he wants to see the Government talking about the euro's benefits. "I think that everybody is right, that this is not yet the time to take the decision," he added. Mr. Patten recognised Tony Blair's essential problem. "But if you leave a complete vacuum now, it is not filled by the rational and good intentioned. It's to some extent filled by the extremely hostile and people who underline their letters in red and green ink," he emphasised. Jonathan Dimbleby asked Mr. Patten how he would advise Labour. As a former Tory chairman, he said that Labour would be unlikely to listen. However he believes that "it is extremely difficult to throw a fire-blanket over the arguments, which go right to the heart of people's concerns and the political debate."

William Hague has been trying to make the most of the Government's divisions. Chris Patten hopes to see a new Tory government in power. Yet he's even more critical of Mr. Hague's "wait and see" policy on the euro. His comments echo the criticism he made in the TV programme about the Government's own "prepare and decide" strategy. He finds William Hague's anti-euro policy "rather confusing", because "the Conservative Party throughout my lifetime has been the more enthusiastic of the two great political parties about Europe." He accused the Tories of showing a lack of realism, arguing that even Norway has to account for decisions made within the EU. Norway remains outside of the European Union.

Europe is still a divisive issue for the Conservatives. Before the European Elections John Stevens left the Tories. He co-founded the pro-Euro Conservative Party, after protesting against Mr. Hague's attitude towards the euro. Mr. Stevens predicts that if the UK does not join the single currency by 2004, it could be very divisive for the country as a whole. He forecasted in February a Scottish Nationalist Party victory in a referendum during that year. His solution: adopt the euro and this will gel the UK together.

More recently, the Tories although confident about winning the next election, have faced further rebellions. Ms Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh defected to the SNP, after accusing Mr. Hague of moving the party to the right. Even though her quarrel was not about the euro. Echoes are heard from pro-euro Tory MPs and MEPs. Occasionally the Government plays upon them. Ms. Sheikh accused the Tories of "bovver boy" tactics over asylum seekers. A senior member of the Tory's Scottish executive, Jacqui Low, also resigned. According to the BBC she left due to "mismanagement by the leadership."

William Hague and Michael Portillo have made the most of the Cabinet's euro divisions. Michael Portillo accused the Government of "ducking " the issue. The Tory leader described the Cabinet's troubles as a civil war in his own speech to the Scottish Conservative's conference last week. "Stephen Byers blurted out one view of the faction. Peter Mandelson, ever watchful for an opportunity ran to do down the Chancellor backed him up." He went on to argue that the split was about whether the Government "will try to persuade the people of Britain to join the euro." Mr. Hague claimed that the Cabinet's divisions were entirely tactical. He split them into two camps: those who'd like to take the UK into the euro by stealth, and the eager pro-euro campaigners.

Mr. Hague accused Tony Blair of cowardice. He argued that the Government is asking business to spend millions to prepare for the euro. Yet Tony Blair won't expend "his political capital and campaign for what he believes in," insisted William Hague. He also said that Tony Blair was spending millions of taxpayers' money to convince the electorate that the UK's euro membership is inevitable. Hague said that Labour are set on the federalist route to a centralised European Superstate. The Tories also rallied not just against any future abolition of Sterling, but also the pound under the Weight and Measures Act. The irony, highlighted by seasoned observers, is that the Conservatives signed the 'federalist treaties' of Maastricht and the Single European Act.

[About EuroPolls]  [Index] [Participants] [EMU Forum] 
[EMU Vote] [Letters] [Legal Disclaimer]